Incorporating Judgement in Fan Charts
针对央行货币政策委员会成员对关键经济变量未来走势的不同看法，提出将每位成员的判断建模为宏观经济模型中的一个情景，并通过加权组合各情景的预测密度得到最终扇形图，以反映预测中的不确定性。
Abstract Within a decision‐making group, such as a central bank's monetary‐policy committee, group members often hold differing views about the future of key economic variables. Such differences of opinion can be thought of as reflecting differing sets of judgement. This paper suggests modelling each agent's judgement as one scenario in a macroeconomic model. Each judgement set has a specific dynamic impact on the system and, accordingly, a particular predictive density—or fan chart —associated with it. A weighted linear combination of the predictive densities yields a final predictive density that reflects the uncertainty perceived by the agents generating the forecast.