An Examination of Aggregate Price Uncertainty in Four Countries and Some Implications for Real Output
构建了加拿大、西德、英国和美国的总体价格不确定性指标，发现1970年代更高且更不稳定的通胀增加了加、英、美的价格不确定性，且对加、英的实际产出有显著负面影响。
This study constructs measures of aggregate price uncertainty for four industrialized countries (Canada, West Germany, Great Britain, and the United States) and attempts to assess the extent to which more rapid and more variable price changes appear to have contributed to increased aggregate price uncertainty. For this purpose we examine the relationship across countries and through time between the rate of inflation, inflation variability, and our measures of price uncertainty. In addition we use our measures of price uncertainty to examine the hypothesis, variously put forward by Marshall, Keynes, Milton Friedman, and Okun, that higher aggregate price uncertainty is likely tor esult in lower real output and higher unemployment. Our results suggest that the higher and more variable inflation of the 1970s did increase uncertainty about the aggregate price level in Canada, Great Britain and the United States, but the evidence for West Germany would not sustain such a conclusion. Finally,we did find evidence of a significant negative output effect of aggregate price uncertainty for Canada and the United Kingdom, but not for the United States or West Germany.