Speculation, Heterogeneity and Learning: A Simulation Model of Exchange Rates Dynamics
构建了一个投机决定汇率的模型，认为投机本质上是非均衡现象，源于经济主体的不完全理性导致信念异质性，并通过分类器系统和遗传算法模拟学习行为，再现了实际汇率序列的典型特征。
This paper presents a model of a speculative determination of exchange rates. The authors' basic claim is that speculation is intrinsically a disequilibrium phenomenon, mainly because the imperfect rationality of economic agents engenders heterogeneity of their beliefs, representations, and 'models of the world.' They use classifiers systems and genetic algorithms to simulate the behavior of learning agents and study the aggregate results in terms of prices and volume of transaction. Simulated exchange rates exhibit some of the distinctive properties characterizing real series. Copyright 1996 by WWZ and Helbing & Lichtenhahn Verlag AG