Residential Construction Volatility: A Seasonal and Cyclical Inventory Adjustment Analysis
将库存的季节性和销售周期引入住宅开工的部分生产调整库存模型，发现季节性与周期性的交互作用，并指出忽略该交互会导致估计偏差，为住房的季节性稳定政策提供依据。
The seasonality of inventories and the seasonality and cyclicality of sales of new single‐family residences by speculative builders may be formally introduced into a partial production adjustment inventory model of housing starts. The theoretical results include variables that imply an interaction between seasonality and cyclicality. A specification error bias in the estimation of the partial adjustment coefficient is evaluated for models that exclude the interaction between seasonality and cyclicality. Stabilization policy is more complex when cyclical instability changes season to season. In this view, justification is found for a seasonal stabilization policy in housing.