The Permanent Income Hypothesis: Estimation and Testing by Instrumental Variables
用工具变量法重新表述、估计和检验理性预期的永久收入假说，基于美国战后总量时间序列数据。当消费序列包含耐用品服务流时假说被接受，而使用国民收入与产品账户的消费序列时则被拒绝，并提出了调和矛盾检验结果的解释。
The permanent income hypothesis with rational expectation is restated, estimated, and tested by an instrumental variables technique on the postwar U.S. aggregate time-series data. The hypothesis is accepted on a consumption series which includes service flows from consumer durables. If the consumption series is the one in the National Income and Product Accounts, the hypothesis is decisively rejected. An explanation is suggested to reconcile the conflicting test results.