做出好的判断:评估风险决策的质量

Making Good Sense: Assessing the Quality of Risky Decision-making

ORGANIZATION STUDIES · 2009
被引 81
人大 AFT50ABS 4

中文导读

研究了管理者在风险决策中的表现差异,通过结合主动信息搜索和认知图谱方法,评估了45位项目经理识别项目风险的能力,发现不同处理问题的方式导致绩效差异。

Abstract

How good are managers at making risky decisions? Recent research has identified this gap in decision-making research; this paper attempts to address this question in the context of risky decision-making. Following a review of the behavioural decision-making and sensemaking schools of research on risky decision-making, a research methodology is presented which is derived from a critique of the former school to address limitations of the research of the latter school. A combination of active information search and cognitive mapping was deployed to assess the performance of 45 project managers in identifying project risks. The findings show that some managers perform better than others at this type of decision-making due to the differences in the ways in which they tackle the problem. The concluding discussion argues that the two schools are more complementary than antithetical.

决策科学管理科学行为经济学认知心理学项目管理