Long Live Democracy: The Determinants of Political Instability in Latin America
研究了1971-2000年18个拉美国家政治不稳定的原因，发现民主制度显著降低不稳定，而派系化政治、收入不平等、种族分裂和城市增长有非线性影响，贸易开放度也有稳定作用。
Abstract We investigate the underlying causes of political instability in a panel of 18 Latin American countries from 1971–2000. We test whether regime type, regime durability, factionalism, income inequality, ethnic diversity, ethnic discrimination, regional spillover effects, urban growth and macroeconomic variables matter for instability. We find several important results: (1) democracy has a significant negative effect on instability that is robust to several alternative specifications; (2) factionalised political systems experience higher instability; (3) income inequality, ethnic fractionalisation, and urban growth have important nonlinear effects on instability; and (4) of the macroeconomic variables we study, only openness to trade has a significant negative effect on instability.