Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Dispersion of Inflation Expectations?
利用25个国家16年的月度数据，发现通胀目标制降低了长期通胀预期的离散度，且该效果在发展中国家显著，但需三年才完全显现。
In this paper, we examine the effect of having an inflation targeting framework on the dispersion of inflation forecasts from professional forecasters. We use a panel data set of 25 countries—including 14 inflation targeters—with 16 years of monthly information. We find that the dispersion of long‐run inflation expectations is smaller in targeting regimes after controlling for country‐specific effects, time‐specific effects, the level and the variance of inflation, disinflation periods, and global inflation. On average, the full effect is not observed until the third year after implementation of inflation targeting. When we differentiate between developed and developing countries, the dispersion of inflation expectations after inflation targeting is smaller and statistically significant only in developing countries.