Forecasting Halibut Biomass Using System Theoretic Time‐Series Methods
采用Aoki提出的线性系统理论时间序列方法，预测大比目鱼总生物量及按管理区域划分的生物量，并评估了八年的样本外预测精度，结果显示预测误差满足次年捕捞限额设定要求。
Abstract A new procedure introduced by Masanao Aoki uses the ideas of linear systems theory to identify and estimate time‐series models. A slightly modified version of this procedure is used to forecast halibut biomass in total and by regulatory area and subarea, and the out‐of‐sample forecasts are evaluated for eight years. All models produce highly accurate forecasts of biomass, with errors well within the bounds required for setting catch limits in the following year.