International Trade and Labour Income Risk in the U.S.
利用美国制造业工人纵向数据，研究国际贸易对劳动收入风险的影响，发现进口渗透率与收入风险显著相关，且福利效应显著。
This article studies empirically the links between international trade and labour income risk faced by manufacturing sector workers in the U.S. We use longitudinal data on workers to estimate time-varying individual income risk at the industry level. We then combine our estimates of persistent labour income risk with measures of exposure to international trade to analyse the relationship between trade and labour income risk. We also study risk estimates from various subsamples of workers, such as those who switched to a different manufacturing industry (or out of the manufacturing sector altogether). Finally, we use these estimates to conduct a welfare analysis evaluating the benefits or costs of trade through the income risk channel. We find import penetration to have a statistically significant association with labour income risk in the U.S. Our welfare calculations suggest that these effects are economically significant. Copyright 2014, Oxford University Press.