Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable
提出一种新方法，将潜在实际GDP建模为不可观测的随机趋势，并通过总供给关系将GDP偏离与通胀联系起来，利用卡尔曼滤波估计产出缺口及其对通胀的影响。
This article proposes a new method for estimating potential output in which potential real gross domestic product (GDP) is modeled as an unobserved stochastic trend, and deviations of GDP from potential affect inflation through an aggregate supply relationship. The output and inflation equations together form a bivariate unobserved-components model which is estimated via maximum likelihood through the use of the Kalman-filter algorithm. The procedure yields a measure of potential output and its standard error and an estimate of the quantitative response of inflation to real growth and the output gap.