The effect of demographics on the Japanese housing market
利用Mankiw和Weil提出的住房需求指数,通过协整和误差修正模型区分长期和短期效应,发现日本住房供给长期价格弹性高,人口结构影响通过短期调整过程体现。
Japanese housing price determination mechanisms are analyzed using the housing demand index of demographic factors proposed by Mankiw and Weil (Regional Science and Urban Economics, 1989, 19, 235–258). The distinctive feature of this paper is that we distinguish between the long-run and short-run effects using the notion of cointegration and an error correction model. We find a high price elasticity for long-run housing supply contrary to the U.S. results and conclude that the effect of the demographics on housing prices in Japan appears through a short-run adjustment process.