费雪假说与国际资本市场

The Fisher Hypothesis and International Capital Markets

Journal of Political Economy · 1986
被引 28
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

在开放经济与税收条件下建模利率决定,发现通胀上升时名义利率大致同比例上升,说明国际资本市场对理解宏观经济行为至关重要,且通胀对国内储蓄者和借款者的实际净利率有非中性影响。

Abstract

In a closed economy with interest taxes at rate τ and with a constant real et rate of interest, the nominal rate of interest should rise by 1/(1 - τ) points for every point rise in the expected rate of inflation. However, a large body of empirical work examines the determinants of nominal interest rates and generally finds that the coefficient of expected inflation is close to or less than one. We model the determination of interest rates in an open economy with taxes. Under plausible conditions, increases in inflation cause the nominal interest rate to rise roughly point for point. This suggests that open-capital-market considerations are central for understanding aggregate economic behavior. The analysis also suggests that inflation is not neutral with respect to the real net interest rate earned by domestic savers or paid by domestic borrowers.

费雪假说国际资本市场名义利率通货膨胀