A Pitfall with Estimated DSGE-Based Government Spending Multipliers
指出在DSGE框架下估计政府支出乘数时，由于内生政府支出与私人消费之间的Edgeworth互补性，忽略政府政策的内生成分会导致低估长期乘数，并用美国战后数据验证了该偏差的显著性。
This paper examines issues related to the estimation of the government spending multiplier (GSM) in a DSGE context. We stress a source of bias in the GSM arising from the combination of endogenous government expenditures and Edgeworth complementarity between private consumption and government expenditures. Due to cross-equation restrictions, omitting the endogenous component of government policy at the estimation stage would lead an econometrician to underestimate the degree of Edgeworth complementarity and, consequently, the long-run GSM. An estimated version of our model with US postwar data shows that this bias matters quantitatively. The results are robust to a number of perturbations.