Political and Monetary Institutions and Public Financial Policies in the Industrial Countries
研究工业化OECD国家为何在公共赤字、债务和通胀方面表现不同，发现政府持久性影响财政纪律，央行独立性降低通胀但不影响实际经济，且货币与财政纪律无关。
Institutions and policies Vittorio Grilli, Donato Masciandaro and Guido Tabellini Why do countries as similar as the industrialized OECD countries go through such different experience in terms of public deficits and debts or in terms of inflation? The answer cannot come from macroeconomic policy responses to different disturbances, nor from the principles of optimal taxation, but rather from politics. This article focuses on the role that particular institutions exert in providing constraints and incentives which shape the actions of policymakers. The electoral process and political traditions affect the ability of governments to deal with deficits and mounting debts. What seems to matter most, it is found, is the effect of the durability of governments. Governments with short horizons act myopically and never quite tackle the hard choices. Such governments typically exist in countries with an electoral system favouring many small political parties. Central bank independence promotes low inflation with no apparent costs in terms of real economic performance, irrespective of the political institutions. In fact there is no link between monetary and fiscal discipline. These findings carry powerful implications for countries facing high indebtedness or stubborn inflation, but also for the construction of the European Economic and Monetary Union.