Incorporating Price and Replacement Purchases in New Product Diffusion Models for Consumer Durables*
研究了将价格和替换购买纳入新产品扩散模型的理论与实证，发现替换购买会显著改变最优定价策略，且价格影响首次和替换购买，单位生产成本随累计首次购买递减。
The article presents theoretical and empirical research findings which incorporate price and replacement purchases in new product diffusion models. On the theoretical side, this paper characterizes, qualitatively, optimum pricing policies for new products. Possible entry of rivals is not considered, but repeat sales, cost learning dynamics and discounting of future profit streams are allowed. Theoretical research findings suggest that the inclusion of repeat purchases in the diffusion model significantly changes the derived optimal pricing policy even if replacements were not price dependent. On the empirical side, alternative first purchase and repeat purchase models have been estimated and compared using nonlinear procedures. The diffusion data analyzed is related to nine consumer durables. Empirical research findings suggest that, for the considered product categories, diffusion is basically an imitative process, price can affect first and replacement purchases, and unit production cost is a decreasing function of cumulative first purchases. Managerial implications of the research findings are also discussed.