Leasing as a Lottery: Implications for Rational Building Surges and Increasing Vacancies
构建了一个扩展的库存需求框架，将租赁过程建模为彩票，分析租赁环境变化如何影响开发商决策，解释建筑热潮和空置率上升现象。
An expanded inventory demand framework is developed that focuses on the impacts of changes in the local leasing environment. We model the lease‐up process as a lottery in which changes in turnover or absorption affect the probability of winning the leasing lottery. In this context, builders rationally respond to transitory, not just permanent, changes in the local market. Hence, factors such as temporary shocks to tenant turnover affect the decision to build. The magnitude of turnover‐induced cycles can vary across markets depending upon the vintage of the existing building stock, the local absorption rate and the rent elasticity of demand for space. This framework, which refocuses attention on the local determinants of the developer's decision to build, hopefully will prove fruitful in future empirical efforts to explain development and vacancy behavior during the past decade.