Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP and Stock Prices
用双变量自回归模型分析GNP和股票价格中的暂时性成分，发现控制消费后GNP冲击几乎全是暂时的，消费/GNP比率能预测增长，消费近似随机游走，价格与股息也有类似规律。
This paper uses two-variable autoregressions to characterize transitory components in GNP and stock prices. Shocks to GNP holding consumption constant are almost entirely transitory, and account for large fractions of the variance of GNP growth. If consumption does not change, consumers must think that any GNP change is transitory. The facts that the consumption/GNP ratio forecasts GNP growth and that consumption is nearly a random walk drive this result. An implication is that consumption provides a good estimate of the "trend" in GNP. Prices and dividends behave similarly: shocks to prices holding dividends constant are almost entirely transitory.