May the pro‐poor impacts of trade liberalisation vanish because of imperfect information?⋆
比较了标准CGE模型与纳入风险厌恶、不完全信息和生产滞后的CGE模型，评估农业贸易自由化对欧洲、美国和世界其他地区不同收入家庭福利的影响。
Abstract In this paper, we try to evaluate changes in welfare gains and their distribution due to trade liberalisation when imperfect information is considered. The results of two versions of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, using the GTAP database and representing goods as well as capital flows, are compared. In the first version, a standard world CGE approach is followed. In the second version, we included risk aversion, imperfect information and production lag in the agricultural sector. After a brief description of the two versions, changes in welfare, represented by the income of two types of household (middlelow and middle‐high) in three regions (Europe, United States, Rest of the World) after agricultural trade liberalisation are presented. Theoretical and political consequences of the results are discussed.