RETURNS TO SCALE AND REGIONAL GROWTH: THE STATIC‐DYNAMIC VERDOORN LAW PARADOX REVISITED*
解释了静态-动态韦尔多定律悖论，指出静态定律估计的规模报酬受空间加总偏差影响，偏向常数规模报酬，并通过模拟验证，对使用空间数据的应用经济分析具有启示。
ABSTRACT It has long been an article of faith amongst regional economists that increasing returns to scale are necessary to explain the punctiform location of economic activity and population. However, there is no consensus in the empirical literature over whether returns to scale are constant or increasing. A notable example of this lack of agreement is provided by the static‐dynamic Verdoorn law paradox. While the dynamic Verdoorn law (specified using growth rates) yields estimates of substantial increasing returns to scale, the static Verdoorn law (specified using log‐levels) indicates only the presence of constant returns to scale. In this paper, we explain the static‐dynamic Verdoorn law paradox by showing that estimates of returns to scale obtained using the static law are subject to a spatial aggregation bias, which biases the estimates towards constant returns to scale. We illustrate our arguments by means of simulation exercises. The results obtained hold general lessons for applied economic analysis using spatial data.