HOUSING AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE*
美国住宅投资波动是非住宅投资的两倍多，且GDP、消费和各类投资同向变动。本文用多部门增长模型复现这些事实，并解释行业数据特征，对研究经济周期和住房市场的学者有参考价值。
In the United States, the percentage standard deviation of residential investment is more than twice that of nonresidential investment. In addition, GDP, consumption, and both types of investment co‐move positively. We reproduce these facts in a calibrated multisector growth model where construction, manufacturing, and services are combined, in different proportions, to produce consumption, business investment, and residential structures. New housing requires land in addition to new structures. The model can also account for important features of industry‐level data. In particular, hours and output in all industries are positively correlated, and are most volatile in construction.