Preliminary-Data Error and Monetary Aggregate Targeting
分析初步货币总量数据因季节性和非季节性误差而后续修订的特征，并探讨其对货币政策的影响。研究发现，初步M1增长率落入联邦公开市场委员会月度容忍区间而最终修正值超出（或相反）的虚假信号约40%的时间，采用改进的季节性调整方法可将此比例减半。
Preliminary monetary aggregate data are subject to subsequent revision because of errors from seasonal and nonseasonal sources that will only be known later. This article examines the characteristics of these revision errors and analyzes their possible effect on monetary policy. It is found that false signals, in the sense that the preliminary M1 growth rate falls within the tolerance band set monthly by the Federal Open Market Committee while the final revised figure lies outside the tolerance limits, or vice versa, occur about two-fifths of the time. It is shown that this proportion can be halved by the adoption of improved seasonal adjustment procedures.