Differential Interpretation of Information in Inflation Forecasts
检验了经济学理论中一个常见假设：经济主体对信息的解读相同。利用以色列企业高管通胀预测调查数据，以1985年通胀体制变革作为自然实验，开发新方法检验该假设，发现证据不支持相同解读假设，而支持差异化解读的替代假设。
We test the hypothesis associated with a standard assumption in the theoretical literature on learning: that economic agents interpret information identically. We use a data set based on a survey of Israeli business executives forecasting future inflation. One of the main advantages of using this data is that a major change in the inflation regime in 1985 can be treated as a natural experiment in new beliefs formation. We develop a methodology for testing this hypothesis and find evidence that is inconsistent with the identical-interpretation hypothesis, but is consistent with the proposed alternative. © 1999 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology