Do Eurozone Countries Cheat with their Budget Deficit Forecasts?
研究了欧元区国家预算赤字预测误差的政治经济决定因素，发现自《稳定与增长公约》实施以来，政府会在选举前操纵赤字预测，且政府的左右立场和制度设计也会影响预测质量。
SUMMARY The authors assess the political economy determinants of budget deficit forecast errors. Their econometric analysis indicates that Eurozone governments have manipulated deficit forecasts before elections since the introduction of the Stability and Growth Pact. The left‐right position and the institutional design of governments also affect the quality of deficit forecasts.