The Relative Forecasting Performance of the Divisia and Simple Sum Monetary Aggregates
比较了Divisia货币总量与传统简单加总货币总量对美国实际GDP和GDP平减指数的预测能力，发现Divisia总量在预测实际GDP时更准确，而M1总量对GDP平减指数预测更优。
This paper provides direct evidence on the forecasting performance of the divisia monetary aggregates relative to the traditional simple sum monetary aggregates. It is shown that forecasts of U.S. real GDP from a four variable vector autoregression (VAR) are most accurate when a divisia aggregate is used rather than a simple sum aggregate, particularly at broad levels of aggregation. Further, the two M1 aggregates, relative to the broader aggregates, are superior predictors of the GDP deflator, with a slight edge going to divisia M1 over simple sum M1.