Partial Identification and Bound Estimation of the Average Treatment Effect of Education on Earnings for South Africa
部分识别了南非不同种族男性教育对收入的平均处理效应，并非参数估计其上界，发现上界估计远低于现有参数点估计，建议政策应关注提高现有教育水平的回报而非增加教育量。
Abstract We partially identify the average treatment effect of education on earnings and non‐parametrically estimate its upper bound for African, Coloured (mixed race) and White males in South Africa. We address endogenous selection into education, cohort effects and endogenous selection into work. Using the September 2007 South African Labour Force Survey, the upper bound estimates are considerably lower than existing parametric point estimates of the return to education. As a lesson, policy makers should focus less on increasing the amount of education obtained by Africans and Coloureds, but rather on measures that can grow the return to existing levels of education.