Tariffs and Growth: An Empirical Exploration of Contingent Relationships
使用从价关税税率作为贸易壁垒的直接度量，发现关税对增长的边际效应随人均收入水平递减，且仅在富裕国家中关税与增长呈负相关。
A large body of empirical research indicates that countries with low policy-induced trade barriers tend to enjoy rapid growth, ceteris paribus. In contrast, alternative theoretical models suggest that the relationship between trade barriers and growth may be contingent on the level of development. Employing a direct trade-barrier measure-ad valorem tariff rates-we find evidence of such a contingency: the marginal effect of tariffs on growth is declining in the level of per capita income. Moreover, evidence of a negative relationship between tariffs and growth is apparent only among the world's rich countries. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.