The Influence and Policy Signalling Role of FOMC Forecasts
用结构VAR模型研究FOMC通胀预测是否影响私人通胀预期，发现其影响并非通过当前利率变动实现，而是传递未来利率走势的信号。
Abstract Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policymakers have published macroeconomic forecasts since 1979 and we examine the effects of FOMC inflation forecasts using a structural VAR model. First, we assess whether they influence private inflation expectations. Second, we investigate the underlying mechanism at work and whether they convey policy signals. We provide original evidence that FOMC inflation forecasts influence private ones. We also find that the influencing effect of FOMC forecasts does not come through current Fed rate changes, that FOMC forecasts affect private expectations in a different way than current policy decisions, and that FOMC forecasts are informative about future Fed rate movements.