Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: The New Economy: Post Mortem or Second Wind?
分析了1995年后美国生产率加速的原因，指出信息技术投资、企业扩张和竞争压力是关键，并预测未来生产率趋势为每年2.2%至2.7%，经济将重获动力。
There was an acceleration of U.S. productivity after 1995. Investment in information technology hardware and software contributed importantly to this, but was not its sole cause. In part, heavy IT investment, perhaps overinvestment, was the result of the booming economy and cheap capital. Besides IT, the expansion of productive firms boosted productivity, together with the competitive pressure this put on other firms to innovate and improve. Productivity growth has been surprisingly strong in 2001, and the likely trend for the future is in the range of 2.2 to 2.7 percent a year. The economy should get a second wind.