How Reliable Are Hog Futures as Forecasts?
研究芝加哥商品交易所生猪期货合约（1997年修订后）是否可靠预测现货价格，发现1998-2004年间该期货市场是现货价格的无偏预测器。
Abstract The Chicago Mercantile Exchange hog futures contract was revamped in 1997 and it is one of the largest futures markets for a nonstorable commodity. The literature is divided on whether or not futures prices for nonstorables provide reliable forecasts of cash prices. We find that from 1998 to 2004, the hog futures market was an unbiased predictor of cash prices.