检验粘性信息菲利普斯曲线

Testing the Sticky Information Phillips Curve

Review of Economics and Statistics · 2010
被引 106
人大 AFT50ABS 4

中文导读

对比粘性信息模型与基本粘性价格模型的实证表现,发现粘性信息菲利普斯曲线在统计上被新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线压倒,其预测的通货膨胀过于平滑且低估1970年代、高估1980年代后的通胀。

Abstract

I consider the empirical evidence for the sticky information model relative to the basic sticky price model, conditional on historical measures of inflation forecasts. The estimated structural parameters are inconsistent with an underlying sticky information model and the sticky information Phillips curve is statistically dominated by the new Keynesian Phillips curve. I find that the poor performance of the sticky information approach is driven by two key elements. First, the sticky information model underestimates inflation in the 1970s and overestimates inflation since the 1980s. Second, predicted inflation from the sticky information model is excessively smooth.

粘性信息菲利普斯曲线新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线通胀预测结构参数估计