Participant Estimates of the Effectiveness of Judgmental Decisions
研究发现，参与者对自己判断决策有效性的估计与客观有效性指标之间关系微弱且不一致，这提示需要改进评估方法以识别更准确的决策者。
Research generally supports the belief that individuals and groups tend to overestimate the effectiveness of their judgmental decisions. There is, however, little information about how consistently these estimates relate to objective measures of effectiveness. Participants' assessments of the anticipated effectiveness of their judgmental decisions were investigated in several studies. It was found that their estimates were poorly and inconsistently related to objective measures of effectiveness. This result raises a need for improved approaches to assessing judgmental decisions and identifying participants who make more accurate judgmental decisions.