Three Decades of Scenario Planning in Shell
壳牌公司用情景规划来预判商业环境剧变，避免投资策略过时，并结合实物期权分析识别未来选择、把握决策时机，为评估实物期权提供关键输入。
Major shifts in the business environment can make whole investment strategies obsolete. In order to anticipate such shifts, the Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies uses scenario analysis, a method it pioneered three decades ago. Given that most investments are irreversible, scenario planning can be combined with real options analysis to help identify options in the future; help time the decision to exercise a real option; and provide an important input in the process of evaluating real options.