Expectations, Heterogeneous Forecast Errors, and Consumption: Micro Evidence from the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Surveys
利用密歇根消费者信心调查的微观数据，检验消费者预期的理性程度及其对消费支出的预测能力，发现预期存在偏差且与人口特征相关，有助于预测消费增长。
The household data underlying the Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment are used to test the rationality of consumer expectations and their usefulness in forecasting expenditure. The results can be interpreted as characterizing the shocks that hit different types of households over time. Expectations are found to be biased and inefficient, at least ex post. People underestimated the disinflation of the early 1980s and the severity of recent business cycles. People's forecast errors are also systematically correlated with their demographic characteristics, in part because of time-varying, group-level shocks. Further, sentiment helps forecast consumption growth. Some of this rejection of the permanent income hypothesis is due to the systematic demographic components in forecast errors.