The Yield Curve as a Predictor of Growth: Long-Run Evidence, 1875–1997
利用1875-1997年的历史数据，检验了收益率曲线预测未来经济增长的典型事实，发现公司债与商业票据的利差能可靠预测增长，但预测能力随时间变化，二战后最强。
This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth. The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts future growth over the period 1875-1997. This predictability varies over time, however, and has been strongest in the post-World War II period. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.