International Asset Pricing and Portfolio Diversification with Time‐Varying Risk
用GARCH模型检验全球八大股市的条件CAPM，发现定价限制基本成立，但高利率时期风险调整超额收益仍有可预测性；美国投资者国际分散化年均收益2.11%，且近二十年未显著下降。
ABSTRACT We test the conditional capital asset pricing model (CAPM) for the world's eight largest equity markets using a parsimonious generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) parameterization. Our methodology can be applied simultaneously to many assets and, at the same time, accommodate general dynamics of the conditional moments. The evidence supports most of the pricing restrictions of the model, but some of the variation in risk‐adjusted excess returns remains predictable during periods of high interest rates. Our estimates indicate that, although severe market declines are contagious, the expected gains from international diversification for a U.S. investor average 2.11 percent per year and have not significantly declined over the last two decades.