Forecasting system parent group formation: An empirical application of cluster analysis
研究了正式层次预测系统的结构参数，通过参数统计分析比较了不同因素组合的表现，并与非正式层次策略和传统预测方法进行了对比。
Abstract The focus of this empirical investigation is twofold. First, an examination of formal hierarchical forecasting system structural parameters is reported. Four formal experimental factors used to define the hierarchical forecasting system are examined. These factors are evaluated in a controlled comparison by means of parametric statistical analysis. Second, a comparative analysis of formal hierarchical forecasting system performance with (1) an informal hierarchical strategy, and (2) a traditional forecasting approach is presented. The best performing combination of factor level settings identified in the examination of formal hierarchical forecast strategies is subsequently evaluated in the second part of this analysis by means of paired difference comparisons with (1) a randomized, informal approach, and (2) a common forecast strategy over the same time series data. Traditional measures of forecast accuracy are used as dependent performance criteria.