The Consumption Risk of the Stock Market
评估股票市场的中期风险是否足以解释其相对于无风险投资的高平均回报率，发现中期风险远高于同期风险，但仍不足以完全解释股权溢价，但对直接持股家庭而言风险更大。
This paper evaluates whether the medium-term risk of the stock market is sufficient to explain its high average rate of return relative to a risk-free investment. The medium-term risk of stocks is measured by the covariance of a market return over a quarter and consumption growth over horizons of one to three years. The medium-term risk of equity in aggregate consumption data is an order of magnitude higher than the contemporaneous risk. This higher level of risk is still insufficient to explain the average premium on equity. However, the medium-term risk of the stock market for households that hold equity directly is twice as large again and some point estimates are completely consistent with the high average return on equity and reasonable levels of risk aversion.