Central bank communication and the perception of monetary policy by financial market experts
研究金融市场专家为何误判欧洲央行利率政策，发现专家系统性地高估通胀对利率的影响，但2003年央行策略澄清后感知更准确，且沟通改善降低了金融危机期间对通胀反应的分歧。
This paper investigates why financial market experts misperceive the interest rate policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor-rule-type reaction function of the ECB, we use qualitative survey data on expectations about the future interest rate, inflation, and output to discover the sources of in- dividual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a panel random coefficient model, we show that financial experts have systematically misperceived the ECB's in- terest rate rule. However, although experts tend to overestimate the impact of inflation on future interest rates, perceptions of monetary policy have become more accurate since clarification of the ECB's monetary policy strategy in May 2003\. We find that this improved communication has reduced disagreement over the ECB's response to expected inflation during the financial crisis.