Evidence on the Demographic Transition
发现生育率对生产率变化的反应取决于经济发展阶段：低发展水平时生产率提高会提升生育率，高发展水平时则降低生育率；同时中等教育需求增加在任何阶段都会降低生育率。
This paper finds that fertility responds to productivity differently depending on the economy's stage of development. At low levels of development, productivity increases will increase fertility, while at the more advanced stages of development, productivity increases lower fertility. During the process, there may be important interaction effects between productivity and education demand. Increases in secondary education demand generate fertility declines regardless of the stage of development. Copyright by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.