Econometrics and Presidential Elections
讨论了一个计量经济方程，用经济事件和现任信息解释总统得票，回顾了方程历史、1992年选举后的更新，并基于经济预测对1996年选举做出预测。
This paper discusses an econometric equation that explains votes for president as a function of economic events and incumbency information. The history of the equation is reviewed, the update after the 1992 election is discussed, and a prediction for the 1996 election is made conditional on an economic forecast.