Interest Rates and Investment in East Asia: An Empirical Evaluation of Various Financial Liberalisation Hypotheses
考察东亚四国利率与投资的关系，发现实际利率在9%以内时投资随利率上升，超过则下降，且高利率国家发生银行危机，结果支持适度金融自由化而非完全自由化或轻度金融抑制。
The article attempts to shed light on the appropriate interest rate policy in the process of economic development. To this end, we examine whether higher interest rates lead to higher investment (and growth) in four East Asian countries. We find that the investment rate went up with real interest rates up to 9 per cent in all four countries but started declining at still higher interest rates in two of the countries. Further, a banking crisis occurred in each of the three countries for which the real interest rates exceeded 9 per cent. This evidence rejects the 'neo-structuralist' argument. Nor does it support unbridled financial liberalisation. Yet, it provides only limited support to Stiglitz's case for 'mild financial repression (real interest rates near zero)' since reducing real interest rates from say, 6 to 3 or 0 per cent would have reduced investment. The optimum policy seems to be closest to McKinnon's 'restrained financial liberalisation' policy, that is, liberalisation with a moderate upper limit (about 6 or 7 per cent) on the real interest rates.