2001 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture Estimating Distributions of Treatment Effects with an Application to the Returns to Schooling and Measurement of the Effects of Uncertainty on College Choice*
利用因子模型识别和估计反事实分布，扩展LISREL框架到动态处理效应场景，并应用于教育选择模型，揭示学生在入学决策时面临的内在不确定性，评估教育政策对不同群体的得失。
This article uses factor models to identify and estimate the distributions of counterfactuals. We extend LISREL frameworks to a dynamic treatment effect setting, extending matching to account for unobserved conditioning variables. Using these models, we can identify all pairwise and joint treatment effects. We apply these methods to a model of schooling and determine the intrinsic uncertainty facing agents at the time they make their decisions about enrollment in school. We go beyond the “Veil of Ignorance” in evaluating educational policies and determine who benefits and who loses from commonly proposed educational reforms.