The Impact of Cereal Prices and Policy on Crop Rotations and Supply Response
研究了谷物价格下降如何促使农户采用50%休耕计划，从而减少谷物供给并改变行业供给曲线弹性，对农业政策制定者和经济学家有参考价值。
The impact of cereal prices on rotational decisions and farm‐level and industry cereal supply is considered. It is argued that with the voluntary 50 per cent set‐aside option for cereal producers, there is a large financial incentive to adopt a 50 per cent set‐aside cropping plan as cereal prices fall below an individual producer's ‘indifference’price. For a typical 210‐hectare UK combinable crop farm, adopting a 50 per cent set‐aside cropping plan is optimal when the price of cereals is below £62/tonne (98.50/tonne). If widely adopted, 50 per cent set‐aside will lead to a substantial fall in the supply of cereals and would lead the industry supply curve for cereals to move leftward and become more elastic over a certain price range. The level of reduced cereal supply will be greater than would be predicted from an estimate of industry level supply response that ignored rotational and farm‐level financial incentives.