Life-Cycle Effects, Structural Change and Long-Run Movements in the Velocity of Money
分析美国货币流通速度的长期波动，发现二战后流通速度上升，与战前下降趋势相反，并指出传统研究忽视结构变化，强调生命周期效应和结构变化的重要性。
SECULAR MOVEMENTS in the velocity of money in the United States have been puzzling. After declining since the Civil War, velocity (defined as the ratio of gross national product to currency plus demand deposits at commercial banks) has steadily increased since World War II. By the late 1970s it had increased threefold over its 1946 value, largely negating the decline of the previous seventy-five years. Other definitions have also reversed their long-run patterns. The substantial decline in the ratio of gross national product to money holdings inclusive of time deposits at commercial banks ended in the postwar period as this ratio first rose and then held relatively steady through the 1970s. Since these trends hold for virtually all sectors of the economy (Selden 1961), research has sought aggregate explanations. Commonly, the behavior of velocity is inferred from time-series studies postulating a stable relationship between the demand for money and aggregate income and interest rates (Boorrnan and Havrilesky 1972; Goldfeld 1973; Laidler 1969). These studies generally place responsibility for the rise in velocity on some combination of a relatively low income elasticity of the demand for money and a relatively large interest rate elasticity. Despite its acceptance, such an approach is unsatisfying since it neglects the role of long-run structural changes in explaining velocity movements. Thus the literature