The Behavioral Effects of Welfare Time Limits
利用SIPP数据研究美国福利时间限制如何通过预期行为减少福利使用，为政策评估提供证据。
Time limits are among the most fundamental of recent welfare reforms. Whereas welfare benefits were an entitlement under the old Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program, the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996 (PRWORA), which replaced AFDC with the Temporary Aid to Needy Families (TANF) program, restricts most families to 60 months of federally funded benefits. Although the states are free to extend benefits further using their own funds, almost all have incorporated some sort of time limit into their TANF programs. Time limits may affect welfare receipt in two distinct ways. The most obvious effect is mechanical, reducing welfare use once recipients exhaust their benefits. However, time limits may also reduce welfare receipt before recipients reach the limit. If families are forwardlooking, they may reduce their current welfare use in order to preserve their benefits for the future. The purpose of this paper is to provide evidence on such anticipatory, or behavioral, effects of time limits. I use data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to replicate my earlier estimates based on the Current Population Survey (CPS). I also exploit the SIPP to relax some of the restrictive assumptions that were implicit in my previous work.