Normal Backwardation and the Inventory Effect
利用Houthakker的库存效应概念，证明在参与者同质的情况下，期货市场可以出现现货溢价均衡，并揭示库存周期中现货与期货价格的临近模式。
The existence of backwardation in futures markets remains an intriguing and controv ersial issue. The authors show that a backwardation equilibrium can o ccur in a true futures market when participants are identical (degree of risk aversion, level of commodity commitments for long and short hedgers, or probability beliefs) using Hendrik J. Houthakker's comple tely neglected notion of an inventory effect that results in a patter n in the nearness of cash and futures prices over the harvest cycle. Copyright 1988 by University of Chicago Press.