Thar She Bursts: Reducing Confusion Reduces Bubbles
通过改变基础价值过程和现金资产比率，发现基础价值下降导致高错误定价，而用“可耗竭金矿股票”替代“股票”的语境能减少困惑从而降低泡沫。
To explore why bubbles frequently emerge in the experimental asset market model of Smith, Suchanek, and Williams (1988), we vary the fundamental value process (constant or declining) and the cash– to–asset value ratio (constant or increasing). We observe high mispricing in treatments with a declining fundamental value, while overvaluation emerges when coupled with an increasing C/A ratio. A questionnaire reveals that the declining fundamental value process confuses subjects, as they expect the fundamental value to stay constant. Running the experiment with a different context (“stocks of a depletable gold mine” instead of “stocks”) significantly reduces mispricing and overvaluation as it reduces confusion.