Are Oil Shocks Inflationary?: Asymmetric and Nonlinear Specifications versus Changes in Regime
发现美国核心通胀菲利普斯曲线存在结构性断裂：1981年前石油价格显著推高通胀，此后传导效应微乎其微，且该结论优于非对称和非线性模型。
This paper identifies a structural break in core U.S. inflation Phillips curves such that oil prices contributed substantially before 1981, but since that time pass-through has been negligible. This characterization is robust to a variety of re-specifications and fits the data better than asymmetric and nonlinear oil price alternatives. Evidence does not support the hypotheses that declining energy intensity or deregulation of energy-producing and -consuming industries played an important role. Monetary policy did not itself become less accommodative of oil shocks, but may have helped create a regime where inflation is less sensitive to price shocks more generally.