Harvests and Business Cycles in Nineteenth-Century America
研究发现约1880年至一战期间，美国主要工业商业周期多由棉花收成波动引发，而小麦和玉米收成无此影响；该现象可用金本位制下收成、国际黄金流动与高能货币需求的相互作用解释。
Most major American industrial business cycles from around 1880 to the First World War were caused by fluctuations in the size of the cotton harvest due to economically exogenous factors such as weather. Wheat and corn harvests did not affect industrial production; nor did the cotton harvest before the late 1870s. The unique effect of the cotton harvest in this period can be explained as an essentially monetary phenomenon, the result of interactions between harvests, international gold flows, and high-powered money demand under America's gold-standard regime of 1879-1914. (c) 2009 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology..